February 2, 2024

Teamsters in the USA have been forced to launch a broad campaign across states to fight against autonomous truck services coming online.

The Teamsters are putting forward the safety argument to try to stop autonomous trucking from becoming a reality.

The response from the Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association (AVIA) is to say that Teamsters are not safety experts, implying that AVIA is.

The reality is that safety on the road is likely not a good area to focus on without some nuance. Many believe that trucking is unsafe at the moment.

While Americans have a high opinion of trucking as a profession, even biased TMAF polling shows only 72% rate the industry’s safety record as "excellent" or "good" (slanted mostly to "good").

Only 65% of American drivers feel safe driving next to trucks on the road (only 22% strongly associated with feeling safe).

25% of American drivers do not think truck drivers drive responsibly.

11% of traffic accidents involve trucks in the USA.

86% of American drivers believe that increasing truck technology levels will increase safety and that is with 68% of drivers believing that trucks are already some of the most technologically sophisticated vehicles.

These stats show that while the public is supportive of drivers, that support might be rather soft on the automation question.

Add to this the constant advertising from tech firms and some car companies about automated driving taxis and cars to increase safety, and we have a bit of a problem with this direction.

Deloitte estimates that it will be public perceptions of safety that will drive the adoption of automated trucking. This is probably why the Teamsters have taken-up this campaign.

The small number of large studies into automated driving is beginning to show that automated vehicles are about as safe as human driven vehicles. The type of accident is rather different, however.

Just like ChatGPT and other AI systems, they can do very sophisticated things correctly and accurately. But, then do things we consider very simple incorrectly and with sometimes disastrous results. Indeed, the reason that current AI systems seem to make "artistic" looking thing rather well is because of these mistakes. They are called hallucinations in the AI industry, but the underlying cause of these mistake is the same for autonomous vehicles.

While an autonomous car might be able to accomplish very sophisticated avoidance manoeuvers in difficult circumstances, it might also just drive right off the road for seemingly no reason while driving down a straight road in clear weather.

The concern is that these kinds of accidents will only become apparent after automated or de-skilled truck driving is brought in.

We must address these issues through regulation that address the specific issues we face with autonomous truck driving. Currently, the industry is mostly self-regulated on the introduction of these technologies and dependent on the state investing in infrastructure.

The first place we are likely to see broad adoptions of autonomous trucking is "inside the gate" for warehousing and large yards. These areas are private property and fall under different regulations than public roads. These autonomous systems will be test beds for showing that autonomous trucking can work at scale and bring the technology into mass production and use.

Next will be known and closed loops of transport between hubs along well maintained public roads. And, then longer-distance highways.

The threat to employment over the longer term is real. However, how the technology is implemented in Canada will depend a lot on the ability of autonomous vehicles to operate in Canada's climate across all weather systems, costs of the system compared to drivers, and regulations for trucking.

The main force pushing adoptions will be the mass production of vehicles with the technology built-in coming from the major producers of trucks. The transition to new fuel systems will be aligned with this transition, so even if there is a substantial increase in price for autonomous addons, the reality is that the majority of the cost driver will be for the new fuel systems with driving assistance technology and autonomous driving tech along for the ride.

CN released their fourth quarter results indicating a significant increase in their dividend payout.

This is as revenues decreased 2% and operating income decreased 5%, and net income decreasing 8%.

These were mostly on decreased rates of shipping as revenue per ton increased 2%.

CPKC has made a big deal on being North America's safest railway.

It is difficult to compare current results with previous years since the CP acquired/merged with Kansas City Rail and expanded its network with contracts into Mexico. This year will determine the outcome of that expansion on their revenue and profits.